J^it'-^A 



ill 
pi 



TEXAS STATE BOARD OF HEALTH 



A STUDY OF THE SCHOLASTIC CENSUS 

AS TO ITS ACCURACY AS THE BASIS OF THE 
FREE SCHOOL FUND 



W. A. DAVIS, M. D. 

State Registrar of Vital Statistics 



BUREAU OF VITAL STATISTICS 

AUSTIN, TEXAS 



VON B0ECKUAMN-J0NS8 CO., FBINTEBS, AUSTIN, TEXAS 



A225-218-1M 

TEXAS STATE BOARD OF HEALTH 



A STUDY OF THE SCHOLASTIC CENSUS 

AS TO ITS ACCURACY AS THE BASIS OF THE 
FREE SCHOOL FUND 



W. A. DAVIS, M. D. 

State Registrar of Vital Statistics 



BUREAU OF VITAL STATISTICS 

AUSTIN, TEXAS 



TON BOECEMANN-JONES CO., PRINTEBS, AUSTIN, TEXAS 



/ 



D. of D. 
APR 29 1918 



A STUDY OF THE SCHOLASTIC CENSUS 



In 1917, the State Board of Education divided $9,241,643.50 among 
the public schools of Texas. This, division was based on the scholastic 
census taken in April of the same year, which enrolled 1,832,219 chil- 
dren within the scholastic age, and resulted in a pro rata of $7.50 per 
pupil. From the school funds of the State each child from 7 to 17 
years of age is entitled to this amount and each community draws $750 
for each 100 scholastics. There is, under the present law, no other 
method of making the appropriation for each school. If the census was 
correctly taken, then the pro ]-ata is just and each child gets its propor- 
tion of the public funds. If the census was not correctly enumerated, 
then some child is robl)cd of its part of the funds, and the pro rata is 
not just. If any community has enrolled more children than are in 
fact within the scholastic age, then that community is receiving more 
than its share of the public funds, and the pro rata is not justly ap- 
portioned. 

So far as is known to the writer, no fraud has been practiced, no 
official has padded the census rolls, nor has any official been negligent 
of his duty: the scholastic census is not sufficiently accurate to be made 
the basis of such an appropriation, nor does it safeguard the interests 
of the children and the interests of the State. 

The accuracy of any census depends directly upon the honesty, the 
intelligence, and the precision of the one who furnishes the data taken 
in the enumeration. Very apparent mistakes appear in all census re- 
ports. With all the safeguards thrown about the Federal Census, there 
are from time to time irregiilarities that have become regular. For ex- 
ample, such reports would appear to show that more persons are of even 
than of odd numbers of years of a.ge, which would be extraordinary. 

It is hardly possible that more people die at an age ending in or 
5 than at an age ending in 1, 2, 3, 4, but such would ap]3ear to be a 
fact from census reports. And, so long as the enumerator is dependent 
upon the careless and uneducated, who see so little value in correct cen- 
sus taking, such irregularities will occur. In the enumeration of the 
scholastic census several motives may play some part in misrepresent- 
ing the exact age of the child. The parent may wish to hold the child 
out of school so as to secure the benefits of its labor; or, on the other 
hand, not wishing to lie bothered with the child at home, may raise its 
age so as to get the benefit of the free school as a kindergarten. It may 
be to the advantage of a community to enroll a greater number of chil- 
dren, and in this way secure more than a just amount of the public 
money. And, while the enumeration of the children in each family 
must be sworn to by the parent or guardian it is apparently an easy 
matter for mistakes tn enter into the enumeration to such an extent 
that the Compulsory School Attendance Law may be rendered to a cer- 
tain extent null and void and the child's chances to secure an education 
may be lost. 



It would appear that when two enumerations are taken for the same 
territory, for the same ages, and for the same year that the results 
should be the same. In 1910, the Federal Census shows 928,805 chil- 
dren between 7 and 16 in Texas; while the State scholastic census shows 
for the same year and ages 968,269, a difference of 39,464 children. 
Both enumerations were taken in the early paii; of the year, by local 
men paid per capita, and while one or the other might have overlooked 
some children within the age, it would be raaiiifestly unjust to say that 
the Federal enumerators were more careless than the scholastic enumer- 
ators to the extent of overlooking 39,000. The pro rata for that year 
was $6.50, and the justice in appropriating $255,248 for the education 
of this 39,000 may be questioned. The only difference that could enter 
into the two enumerations has been mentioned above, and if that be the 
case such errors cannot be corrected under the present system. 

The 1910 scholastic census shows that 113,879 children entered the 
public school age; for the same year and same age the Federal Ceiisus 
show only 105,173, a difference of 8706; while at 16 years of age the 
former shows 79,937 and the latter 88,293 children, a difference of 
8356. The difference shows that the scholastic enumerators enrolled 
8706 more at the age of 7 and 8356 less at the age of 16 than was en- 
rolled by the Federa.l Census enumerators. Such enrollment placed 
8706 children at 7 years of age in school and took from school 8356 
children at 16 years of age, contrary to the enrollment of the Federal 
Census. 

The cut opposite this page illustrates the irregmlarities that are to 
be found in the census. On the left margin is scaled the number of 
children; on the lower margin the age of enrollment. It will be noted 
that, according to the 1916 scholastic census, 138,000 children entered 
the public school age, while 68,000 children passed out at the age of 
17. The 1916 census gives 36,000 more children at the age of 7 than 
is given by the 1917 census; while the 1916 census enrolled 35,000 less 
at the age of 17 than were enrolled by the 1917 census. The Federal 
census of 1910. as well as the scholastic census of 1910, 1915, and 1916, 
show a greater numlDcr entering the school age than leaving that age; 
the reverse is true as to the 1917 census, which reports 102,000 enter- 
ing and 104,000 leaving the school age. A careful study of those ir- 
regularities as shown in this chart will develop many such apparent 
errors. 

It is probable that the Federal Census is not absolutely accurate, but 
the irregularities of the Texas scholastic census are very noticeable. By 
reference to Table I, it will be noted that the increase by years for the 
seven years following the 1910 census is extremely irregular. The in- 
crease as shown is as follows: During 1910 an increase of 1372; dur- 
ing 1911. 1888; during 1912, 3426; during 1913, 4782; during 1914, 
2646: during 1915, 10,765: while during the year 1916 there was a de- 
crease of 36,348 children at the age of 7 years, as shown by the 1917 
census. If the number of children enumerated as 7 years of age in 
1917 is correct, then it is hardly possible that the number shown for 
that age in the previous years can he correct, since there was no partic- 
ular emigration during the year 1916. 



— 6— 



TABLE I. 
The Federal Census and the Scholastic Census for Texas by Years of Aee From 7 to 17. 





Federal 
Census. 








Texas Scho'astie Census. 








1910 


1910 


1911 


1912 


1913 


1914 


1915 


1916 


1917 


7 


105,173 

100,699 

93,373 

94,875 


113,879 

108,914 

101,783 

Group A 

99,859 


115,251 
111,686 
105,524 
105,232 

89,062 


117,139 
114,430 
108,104 
107,881 

100,361 
98.866 


120,565 
117,892 
111,284 
110,946 

104,568 
100,701 
101,138 


125,347 
122,695 
116,071 
115,736 

109,355 
105,493 
105,927 
104,526 


127,993 
123,955 
118,578 
116,359 

111,239 
110,105 
108,626 
107,145 
104,118 


138,758 
130,933 
121,139 
121,731 

113,826 
116,818 
110,594 
106,695 
100,591 
93,190 


102,410 


8 


122,556 


9 


113,206 


10 


116,802 






11 


84,676 


Group B 
91,880 


111 910 






12 


97,336 
87,795 
92,110 
84,475 
88,293 


98,855 
93,669 
93,102 
86,391 
79,937 


96,545 


117,701 






13 


95,870 
94,135 
8S,173 
80,931 


98.110 


113,603 






14 


96,697 
91,859 

83,779 


99,739 


115,965 






15 


95,794 
85,943 


100,588 


113,838 






16 


90,729 


100,934 


109,826 






17 




68,944 


104,402 




















Total 


928,805 


96«,269 


991,409 


1,017,133 


1,049,570 


1,096,467 


1,129,152 


1,223,219 


1,232.219 



The increa,se of 10,765 for 1915, as shown in the census for 1916^ 
when compared with the increase of 2646 for the year previous, cannot 
be accounted for in any scientific manner. The children 7 years old in 
1916 were bom in 1909. 1907 was marked by the greatest panic in 
the history of the State. The effect of this panic which occurred in 
the fall was especially felt in the year 1908, and effected the birth rate 
of 1909. A high birth rate is always an indication of prosperity and 
the reverse is generally true. 1909 would show a lowered birth rate 
and the scholastic census should show a decrease of children born that 
year when compared with other years rather than an increase of from 
two to seven times greater than that of previous years. 

If the scholastic census is correct, the enrollment of only 102,4^10' 
children at 7 years in 1917 would indicate that in 1917 there were 
11,469 less than in 1910, a decrease rather than an increase during the 
seven years from 1910 to 1917. 

If the price of wheat and the value of the cotton crop be considered 
in connection with the scholastic census, it will appear that the num- 
ber entering the public schools is not controlled by the number of chil- 
dren but by the economic condition of the State. By reference to Table 
2, it will be noted that there was no great difference in the value of the 
cotton crop during the years 1910, 1911, 1912, and 1913, if the price 
be considered in conjunction with the cost of picking and ginning, but 
in 1914 when the European war had closed the cotton exchanges, and 
there was no market, the value of the crop dropped off $79,570,000 in 
value, not including the cost to the farmer of picking and ginning a 
four-million-bale crop, at the same time wheat advanced 18 cents per 
bushel, the scholastic census of 1915 shows an increase of only 2646 
at the age of 7, as compared with 4782, the increa.5e of the year before. 



— 7— 



In 1915, the cotton crop tiliows a shortage of 1,322,000 bales, with an 
increase of more than $22,870,000 in vahie. This shortage saved the 
farmer more than $15,000,000 in picking. "Wheat had declined 6 cents 
per bnsliel in price, making flour ehoapor and the 1916 census shows 
the unusual increase of 10.765 children entering the scholastic age, or 
a total increase for all ages of 94,067 compared with 32,685 of the year 
before. 

TABLE II. 

Cotton Crop. 



Year. 


Price 
Per Pound. 


Number 
of Bales. 


Total Value 
of Crop. 


Wheat 
Per Bushel. 


1910 


14.0 
9.6 

11.5 

12.5 
7.3 

11.2 


2,949,000 
4,107,000 
4.645,000 
3,773,000 
4,390,000 
3,068,000 


$ 241,310,000 
238,170,000 
312,610,000 
276,600,000 
197,030,000 
219,900.000 


88.3 


1911 


87 4 


1912 


76 


1913 


79.9 


1914 


98.6 


1915 


92.0 







Increase and Decrease in the Value of Cotton and the Price of Wheat Over the Year Previous. 



Year. 


Value of the 
Cotton Crop. 


Price of 


Wheat. 


Increase in 
Scholastics. 


1911 


Decrease $ 3,140,000 
Increase 74,440,000 
Decrease 36,010,000 
Decrease 79,570,000 
Increase 22,870,000 


Decrease 
Decrease 
Increase 
Increase 
Decrease 


.9 cents 
11.4 cents 

3.9 cents 
18.7 cents 

6.6 cents 


Increase 23,140 


1912 


Increase 25 724 


1913 




1914 


Increase 46,897 


1915 


Increase 32 685 


1916* 


Increase 94,067 


1917* 






Increase 9,000 











♦Statistics of cotton and wheat crop not compiled for 1916 and 1917. It must be remembered 
that each million bales of cotton cost at least 513,000,000 to pick and gin and that while 1911 
and 1914 show a 4,000,000 bale crop that this cotton at 9.6 and 7.3 cents per pound was gathered 
at a loss to the farmer. The census of the next year will show this efi'cct by proportionately 
lower increase in the scholastic census. This effect is very apparent in the increase of scholastics 
in 1915 census as influenced by the conditions of 1914, and the prosperity of 1915 resulted in 
the greatest increase shown in any census report. The unsettled condition resulting from the 
increased price of food and merchandise and the declaration of war in April when the 1917 
census was taken caused a most marked decrease as shown by the loss of 85,000 in the scholastics 
as compared with the increase the year before. 

It is possible to account for the increase in those entering the scho- 
lastic age by taking into consideration the element of immigration, but 
the decrease cannot be accounted for by emigTatiou. 

While it has been suggested that the transient Mexican population 
causes this extreme variation, close study of that clement will contra- 
dict the statement. In 1915, the total number of Mexican children 
enumerated was slightly over 104,000, while in 1916 the total was 105,- 
000, an increase of only 1000. If a close comparison he made, it Avill 
be found that there is less variation in the number of Mexican children 
enumerated than among other nationalities. 

It is a well known fact that some communities may decrease, but on 
the whole the jwpulation of the State i.s. rapidly increasing; so rapidly 
in fact the usual methods of estimating the population during the in- 
tracensal years are not reliable, when applied to Texas. 

The inaccuracies in the scholastic census i.s apparent if any particu- 
lar group of children be followed tlirough the school ages. Take, for 
example. Group B, Table I. 91.88U ch'ldren were 11 years of age in 



— 8— 



1910. Tliese children were 12 years of age in 1911, and had increased 
from 91,880 to 96,545 in number; the same group of children increased 
in 1912 to 98,110 and in 1913 to 99,739 ;"tlie next year to 100,588, 
and in 1915 to 100,934, making a total increase of 9054 during the five 
years previous; running from 33fi to 4655 increase per year. The ques- 
tion arises, where did this number of children come from? Immigra- 
tion is the only reason that can be given for this increase. The scho- 
lastic census shows that this 91,880 children which had increased to 
100,934 in five years dropped off in 1916 to 68,944, a loss of 31,990 
during the year 1915 or 22,936 during the five-year period. Such a 
loss cannot be ascribed to emigration, and must be due either to death 
or to the methods of taking the scholastic census. 

If Group A, Table I, be followed through the school ages, it will be 
found that the 1911 census shows a decrease of 10,797 children in this 
group in the year 1910, while the 1912 census shows this same group 
to have increased by 9804; the 1913 census shows an increase of 2272; 
the 1914 census an increase of 3388; the 1915 census a decrease of 
408; and the 1916, a decrease of 10,928; and the 1917 census an in- 
crease of 11,212. It is impossible that the population should fluctuate 
to this extent, and such variations must be ascribed to the lack of ac- 
curacy in the census. While the 10-vear-old group in 1910 decreased 
10,797, the 11-year-old group, the same year, had increased 4665; the 
next year the one group increased 9000, the other increased only 2000. 
Such comparison may be made as to each year with the result that 
there is no similarity in the increase or decrease; that there is no law 
controlling the variation. 

By reference to Table HI, the death rate of children in the scholastic 
age will be found and the decrease in any year will in every case be 
greater than the death rate. 

TABLE III. 

Deaths by Ages and Years of Children Within the Scholastic Age Computed on Rates Taken 
From the Federal Census Life Tahles. 



Death 
rate 
Age. per 
1,000 


1910 


1911 


1912 


1913 


1914 


1915 


1916 


Total 

Deaths 

by Ages. 


7 3.30 


37.5 


380 
314 


386 
322 
267 


397 
332 
274 
251 


413 

345 
286 
262 


422 
349 
293 
264 
243 
244 


457 
369 
299 
276 
249 
259 
261 


2,830 


8 2.82 


307 

2.51 
Group A 

226 
Group B 

201 


2,338 






9 2.47 


260 
238 
195 


1,930 


10 2.27 


244 
219 
219 


1,761 


11 2.19 


229 
223 
238 


239 


1,575 


12 2.22 


219 
221 
239 
245 
252 


214 


234 
249 
268 


1.612 


13 2..36 


226 
241 
250 
255 


231 


256 
275 
295 


1,682 


14 2 57 


248 

• 260 

264 


256 


274 
285 
294 


1.801 1951 


1.5 2.84 


272 
271 


285 


1.892 


16 3.16 


286 


318 


1,940 


Total deaths 

7 to 16, inc 


2,536 


2,573 


2,660 


2,743 


2,867 


2.959 
1,.'^05 


3 023 
1,735 


19,361 



— 9— 

Of the 99,So9 enrolled in 1910 at 10, 1441 died within the next live 
years, leaving 98.418 at the age of IG. Of this nuniher, 294 died dur- 
ing 191G, leaving 98,124 in 1917, as eoin]);ired with the 104,402 on- 
rolled, if no emigi'ation oecnrrcd. 

Of the 91,880 in 1910 at 11 years of age, 1505 died, leaving 90,375 
to be enrolled in 1916, rather than 68,94-1, if no emigration occurred. 

If, for example, the children 12 years of age in 1910 1)e taken, there 
appears a loss of 8126, as shown by 1914 census, when, according to the 
death rate for the ages included, the total number of deaths would be 
only 1251 children, leaving 6875 children who had been enrolled in the 
school age during 1910, 1911, 1912, and 1913, who were not enrolled 
in 1914. A detailed study of the scholastic census will develop many 
such errors. Any group if followed through the different ages will show 
variations that are not to be explained in any manner otlier than by an 
error in census emuneration, and the question presents itself, is such a 
census, honey-combed with errors, sufficiently reliable to be made the 
basis of the division of more than $9,000,000, and should the education 
of the masses be placed upon such an uncertain foundation? Should 
the parents under the Compulsory School Attendance Act be allowed to 
change the age of the child at their pleasure, and in this Avay deprive 
the child of its education and thwart the purpose of the founders of 
our public school system. 

If justice would be done to all, the age of the child must be made a 
matter of State record, so that it 7nay not be changed at any time or 
by any one ; and from this record should be taken a list of the children 
who are within the school age, and upon this list should be based the 
division of the public school funds. So long as it is the duty of the 
enumerator to enroll all children within the school ages, regardless of 
residence, whether permanent or transient, just so long will some dis- 
tricts receive more of the public funds than they are justly entitled to 
So long as the parent is allowed to give each year the age of the child, 
just that long Avill the economic conditions effect the number enumer- 
ated, and the children of those who are careless, ignorant, or dishonest 
may be deprived of an education. If the Com]3usory School Attend- 
ance Law is to be enforced, if the very children that should be educated 
at the expense of the State, and for whom the public school is especi- 
ally intended, are to l)e protected and are to receive an unintemipted 
education, the apportionment of the public funds and the enrollment of 
the child I'en must lie jdaced upon a more reliable basis than tlie scho- 
lastic census. 



LIBRARY OF CONGRESS 



029 487 038 6 



